ES/SPX Plan 6/24/2025 - Is ES In Break Out Mode?
Lets Talk Levels
Market Recap:
We started the week with another gap down day down into the same 5980s that continued pop and hold week over week. With the majority of price action holding below the lower end of the weekly balance of 6025. After some intra day war headlines we dipped and ripped from 6k into 6080 on the day making a new higher high after a series of lower lows.
Market Sentiment: +1 Greed
Market Close Context:
Market ramped into the close holding into the 6080 prior resistance and is currently in a potential break out mode from its 3 week base between 6100-5980. During ETH we managed to gap up an additional 40pts here pre market. Overall market has been resilient to just about any and all headlines regarding war, debt downgrades, tariff wars, inflation data etc.
On a higher time frame we are currently slightly imbalanced: Above 6081
News for tomorrow: Powell Testifies / Consumer Confidence 30mins after NY open
Overall Bias: Bullish above 6066 / Neutral 6060-6039 / Bear Below 6027
Into tomorrow we have one main inflection points of interest : 6081
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Pre Market Plan for ES 6/24/2025
Bull Plan Scenario #1 : 6100 Retest
This area has been major inflection point for 2 of the last highs made in this area between 6105-6100. If bulls are really in control any back tests of this area, are of interest for a pop back into pre market balance of 6120-25
This would be as follows:
ES would trade down into 6100-6105 - Generates Interest
Price would ideally slide into 6100 slowly and not trade any lower than 6093 - Critical
ES would tap 6095 and bounce directly above 6100-6105 - Trigger
Take Profits : 6120-25
Bull Plan Scenario #2 : 6081 Failed Break Down
This area was a major inflection point for bulls and bears in the last few tests resulting in a 40+pt move into 6120 or down into 6040 once lost. Given there is a massive LVN here this area will be of interest for a failed break down of the area for a retest of 6100s
This would be as follows:
ES would trade below 6088 - Generates Interest
Price would ideally flush below and ideally clean up the 6073 poor low and bounce not consolidating below 6070 VAH - Critical
ES would reverse and reclaim close 10/15min bar above 6081 - Trigger
Take Profits : 6100 / 6115 / 6125