ES/SPX Plan 6/25/2025 - ATHs Around The Corner!
Lets Talk Levels
Market Recap:
Market gapped up overnight, after a slew of what market digested as positive we continued to melt up into the rest of the afternoon until market close putting in a close above 3 week highs solidifying of a mutli week break out.
Market Sentiment: Unchanged Greed
Market Close Context:
Into the close we held slightly above the ON highs, if bulls are really getting into a parabolic leg up we should consolidate above the pre market highs at 6141-30 and chug along into the 6180s.
On a higher time frame we are currently : Parabolic above 6141-30 / Bull above 6081
News for tomorrow: Powell Testifies / New Homes Sales 30 mins Post NY Open
Overall Bias: Bullish above 6081
Into tomorrow we have one main inflection points of interest : 6131
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Pre Market Plan for ES 6/25/2025
Bull Plan Scenario #1 : 6115 Failed Break Down
This area served as a decent level that broke out of during ON session which broke free around midnight trading and served as support pre market and put in a decent failed break down at NY open.
This would be as follows:
ES would trade down into 6115 - Generates Interest
Price would ideally slide into 6103-6105 clean up the poor lows but not form acceptance below 6094 pVAL - Critical
ES would tap 6095 and bounce directly above 6108-6115 - Trigger
Take Profits : 6120-25 / 6131 / 6144
Bull Plan Scenario #2 : 6081 Failed Break Down (Same Plan)
This area was a major inflection point for bulls and bears in the last few tests resulting in a 40+pt move into 6120 or down into 6040 once lost. Given there is a massive LVN here this area will be of interest for a failed break down of the area for a retest of 6100s
This would be as follows:
ES would trade below 6088 - Generates Interest
Price would ideally flush below and ideally clean up the 6073 poor low and bounce not consolidating below 6070 VAH - Critical
ES would reverse and reclaim close 10/15min bar above 6081 - Trigger
Take Profits : 6100 / 6115 / 6125
Bear Plan Scenario #1 : 6141 Failed Break Out
This is a bit tricky of a short play given the parabolic trend we had today. This would assume that we make a new daily high to entice new fresh money to bid higher, along with holding below the pre market 1st high at 6143 which we broke out and spent most of the afternoon trading above. This would essentially assume fresh money positions along with afternoon positioning would be trapped below that high leading us lower into 6115 bull zone.
This would be as follows:
ES would trade above P high of 6155.25 - Generates Interest
Price would ideally fade as soon as it took the fresh high and begin to test the 6143 zone bounce and put in a lower high - Critical
ES would drop below 6143 and put in a 10/15min close - Trigger
Take Profits : 6128-26 / 6115 / 6103