ES/SPX Plan 6/26/2025 - Consolidating For Higher?
Lets Talk Levels
Market Recap:
We remained in a very neutral, tight range all of NY open and ETH, range bound between 6138-6150 most of the morning after the slight dip in the morning open. Overall bulls held trend while bears showed no interest in todays price action, filled with lots of passive market participants. One note is there is quite a lot of poor structure underneath 6140 that can be an opportunity for fresh longs to get in after it is cleaned up.
Market Sentiment: +3 Greed
Market Close Context:
Overall very neutral close, after a large trend day where price digested some of the large move, coiling for its next phase. Internals where green to red most of the day which is part of why I opted for shorts at open at 6158s.
On a higher time frame we are currently : Parabolic above 6141-30 / Bull above 6081
News for tomorrow: Unemployment Claims + GPD Pre Market 1hr
Overall Bias: Bullish above 6081
Into tomorrow we have one main inflection points of interest : 6115
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Pre Market Plan for ES 6/26/2025
Bull Plan Scenario #1 : 6115 Failed Break Down (Same Plan)
This area served as a decent level that broke out of during ON session which broke free around midnight trading and served as support pre market and put in a decent failed break down at NY open.
This would be as follows:
ES would trade down into 6115 - Generates Interest
Price would ideally slide into 6103-6105 clean up the poor lows but not form acceptance below 6094 pVAL - Critical
ES would tap 6095 and bounce directly above 6108-6115 - Trigger
Take Profits : 6120-25 / 6131 / 6144
Bull Plan Scenario #2 : 6081 Failed Break Down (Same Plan)
This area was a major inflection point for bulls and bears in the last few tests resulting in a 40+pt move into 6120 or down into 6040 once lost. Given there is a massive LVN here this area will be of interest for a failed break down of the area for a retest of 6100s
This would be as follows:
ES would trade below 6088 - Generates Interest
Price would ideally flush below and ideally clean up the 6073 poor low and bounce not consolidating below 6070 VAH - Critical
ES would reverse and reclaim close 10/15min bar above 6081 - Trigger
Take Profits : 6100 / 6115 / 6125
Bear Plan Scenario #1 : 6148 Failed Break Out Fade
This area is a tight consolidation zone, that has ping ponged since overnight yesterday, and now this afternoons trading session. If we put in a pop that tests the 6151 VAH + LVN above that fades back below 6148 this would be an ideal entry for a test back down into 6138s that could form a continuation into 6125 poor lows.
This would be as follows:
ES would trade above VAH of 6151 - Generates Interest
Price would ideally pop aggressively into the LVN between 6151-6149 and reject below immediately - Critical
ES would drop below 6148-47 and put in a 10/15min close - Trigger
Take Profits : 6140-38 / 6125 / 6111
Rick, for Poor Lows during a single RTH session, do you count the lowest pair of 30 min periods within [2] ticks, the rightmost pair of 30 min periods within [2] ticks, or both? In other words, is there one or two Poor Lows today? Thanks.